Long or Short Capital

In case you’ve been on the moon, South Africa is out of power. One government-run monopoly produces 95% of the country’s power and they ran out. In 1998, the power company told everyone in the government that they would run out of power in 2007. The government apparently thought they were just kidding and didn’t do a damn thing. So now they’re out. In light (swish!) of this, let’s examine the key points in the investment case for going long South Africa.

1) They have a 25% unemployment rate; sounds bad but the biggest driver of the economy — the mining industry — is booming and will create jobs

2) Oh wait, you need a lot of electricity to mine and smelt metal, no one will spend the billions needed to build a new mine if they can’t get secure power to run the facility. At least there’s some positive political news….

3) The soon-to-be president, who goes by “JZ”, clearly gets it and will fix everything:

“He [Zuma] was acquitted last year of raping an AIDS activist. He testified in his trial that he had consensual sex with the activist, who is HIV-positive, without a condom, but he showered afterward to minimize his chance of contracting AIDS.”

This guy was Chairman of the National AIDS Council in the country with the biggest AIDS problem in the world and he thinks “washing it off” stops AIDS? Really? Don’t you at least have to put some ‘tussin on it?

Recommendation: Don’t analyze South Africa, it’s depressing.

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