Archive for the 'Research' Category

Spam at its Best: Insider Scone Info

I’m not one to buy products from spam, but whatever this guy is selling, I want.

From: Fridirique Citeaux [mailto:Fr�d�rique_Citeaux@mydomain.com]
Sent: Friday, July 22, 2005 2:42 PM
To: kaiseredamame@gmail.com
Subject: Sir Rodney’s Scones

TEST

The mystery, the suspense, I want it. Call me Freddy, pick up the phone and sell me a scone.


Very Long “Sexy Chinese Female Bloggers”

Our position on outsourcing is still in the process of being formulated (I have, in a collaboration with Dr Deep Gupta, in fact, outsourced our position on outsourcing, more to follow on that later). But from our surface analysis of outsourcing, there are clear and undeniable positives.

Cheap sneakers for me to run in. Moneys and profits for Indians. The destruction of the US IT nerd underclass. The opportunity for people to work on a cruise ship, tax free, programming 60 hours a week, 1-3 miles off the shore of California, where the only law is the Sea. These things are incontrovertibly good.

There are almost no negatives to outsourcing, unless you consider alleged “abusive child labor to pad the pockets of the American affluent” a negative. To go against the curremt, I actually see this as one of the sweetest fruits of the globalization tree. Tiny little hands sewing my multinational quilt of opulence.

Which brings you to today’s post. Just now, the sweetest fruit of globalization has announced its intention to enter the market. From Blog Oriented (via MR.com):

We also have one phase of our design that we have not yet mentioned. A few of our investors think that it will be our biggest hit traffic-wise. I will go into it more in later posts but in brief it can be summed up as, “Sexy Chinese female bloggers.”

If we had one investment to make, one position to take, it would be to go long “Sexy Chinese Female Bloggers.” Get in on the IPO. Do whatever it takes. The greatest outsourcing investment opportunity of our lifetimes. Price Target $Perftyperftyeleven.


Proposed Changes to the Koran: Part 1

My knowledge of Islamic doctrine is admittedly limited — I’m the same guy who thought that “Mecca” was a low-carb energy drink until early last week. Apparently, the Koran prohibits the paying or receiving of interest. It’s high time for Muslim leaders to update that belief because they’re missing out on the American dream and the greatest invention of the modern age: sophisticated financial products. Why should I be able to own 6 condos in Miami (and a duplex in the Valley) while Muslims everywhere are forced to barter for housing?

It just seems like the type of situation where Muslim leaders should get together and say “Ok, from now on, this rule only applies to excessive interest. No loan sharking but that mortgage from Countrywide is A-OK.”

I bet Mohammed would have been all about 4.4% fixed rate mortgages. He was only pissed because he had bad credit and the best he could do at the local medieval mortgage broker was a 7.8% 5/1 ARM. No way you want to put that kind of financing on a herd of mangy goats; you can’t get gap insurance on them! I’d be pissed too.


Short My Own Brain

JD here and my brain has been blown by the guys at MR. TC and AT usually hit me up with some mind bending econ, but this is something that has broken my cognitive visual powers to the nth degree. In this image square A and square B are the same shade of gray.

No, I didn’t believe it either. I looked it from every angle, I used every visual queue and I even tried some 3D glasses. Then KM hit me with this proof. Thanks KM, my brain is feeling less vulnerable now. My intuition will bounce back though, so be ready to jump on it long in the near future. Big time. JD out.


Aliboohoo: ??????

Yes yes, this whole $1bn Yahoo-Alibaba stake aquisition deal is big news to some people and I’m sure it will have some sort of really important impact on China, Indochine, Siam and all those places.

But all these stock-crazed investors are missing the glorious naming opportunities as the two funniest corporate names come together as one. When they inevitably decide to create new names and rebrand all their products, a total no-brainer in this analyst’s opinion, the possibilities will be endless.

Yahooba has already been penned, but let’s delve into my grab bag of branding brilliance:

Aliboohoo. It calls attention to the emptiness of life and the pathos associated with a capitalistic bourgeois existence.

Yalibaboo!. Alludes to a distant time, the golden age of our Half-Human Half-Dinosaur ancestors, who founded civilization 33,000 years ago and created badmitton (still played to this day, the oldest sport in continuous existence).

Baba ali,ya? Hoo!. Who am I? Why am I here? What is the meaning of life? Hoo!

Aliyahooblies. It booms out at you, making its presence felt from the very bosom of inspiration.

American China Auction and Search Corp. Provocative. Basic. Dynamic.

Hot-Hand in the Mahjong Game Inc

It pained my heart to learn that Who’s Your Daddy is already taken by a licensing company; but ?????? is still available.

It’s obvious to you that these names are positioned for explosive growth because, well, we said so, and that’s all the analysis you need. Strong Buy with a current price target of !.


Visteon

Check out this slide I found in a recent Visteon investor presentation:

Visteon New Ideas

That’s right, believe it or not the hard working employees at Visteon have had 100% year-over-year growth in “ideas”. Now that is something. You might ask, well just how many ideas did they have? And that’s impossible to answer, because there is no scale whatsoever on the graph. For all we know 2003 could have been an extremely easy comp for ideas: Visteon employees could’ve sat around all year long reading books they had already read and, as a result, had almost no new ideas in 2003.

What I’d like to know is who had the idea to make and show this slide? And perhaps more importantly, was the idea for this slide included in the ‘new ideas’ calculation? If not, it’s possible that this slide is actually understating the true new idea growth.

So I just told my 15-year-old brother about this, he said that he thinks for every new idea he has today, he’s likely to have 2 new ideas tomorrow. That’s 100% growth in new ideas PER DAY. Impressive.

So conclusion is Long: My Little Brother, Short: Visteon. The thesis is that my Little Brother’s new idea growth will outpace Visteon’s by roughly 1x(10^109)% per year, roughly.


The New Guy

Hello. I’m a new poster, my name is Johnny Debacle. JD for short. My MO is abbreviations. Because nothing beats a good abbrev. Well, nothing other than a cooler, better abbrev. The only abbrevs that I can’t stand are overused, hackneyed abbrevs (e.g. LOL et al). But really, comparing abbrevs? Come on, find a better use of time.

I’ve noticed some of the other longorshort bloggers using really big words so I thought I’d kick it off by helping the readers who don’t understand them.


iconoclast
– this refers to a person who grabs on to icons, usually the ones on his desktop, and then drags them all over the place with no regard for human life. I know, random word huh?


esoteric
– this word is only understood by a small group of people, I couldn’t get a hold of them to get a definition.

Finally I’d like to say that I am the man. I was watching Miss Teen USA last night, and turned to my buddy right when Miss Teen Ohio walked out and I said: “she’s the best, she’s got the goods”. Two thrilling hours later, she was crowned.

Now she’s moving to New York and has free hair care for a year, and boy did she earn it. I can’t wait to email her. Also, her favorite song is “Eye of the Tiger,” what a GREAT answer to that question, ha, eye of the tiger, that’s just great.


I’m Long Mudpies

And short Creampies. Especially as baked by Patrick Byrne.

I’m an iconoclast, but a pie-analyst by training. We think the entire financial pie baking industry is inherently cyclical and is positioned to rebound in a big way after a couple of Sarbanes-Oxley induced down years. Mudpies are a strong buy per our recommendation, as we expect them to come back into fashion on a pro-forma basis. Pumpkin pie looks attractive at current prices too.

Creampie

A larger theme in the “Long or Short” newsblogletter is that in any mania, look to the enablers, the proverbial “companies providing the shovels to the gold miners” rather than the “gold miners” themselves. Extending this framework to the frenzied pie market, we are currently recommending a long position in women, bred for their skills in baking. Target price $Unicorn.


Initiating Coverage of the Little People Sector

We are initiating coverage on the Little People sector with the following ratings.
Gnomes – UNDERWEIGHT
Sky Gnomes – OVERWEIGHT
Dwarves – OVERWEIGHT
Elves – EQUALWEIGHT

Gnomes
Gnomes have been fading after a strong 2 year run fueled by gnome icon Giles Standish’s turn as the Travelocity spokesman. Giles took gnomes to previously unattained levels and improved the group’s overall reputation. Unfortunately, all good things must end and Travelocity recently announced a revamped marketing plan that included an early retirement for Giles. We wish him the best but downgrade the group as it appears unlikely that gnomes as a whole will be able to comp against the Giles loss, at least for the next year. Sell.

Sky Gnomes
We must confess that prior to today, we were completely unaware of sky gnomes. Luckily, we listened to the BSkyB (BSY) quarterly conference call this morning before publishing this initiation and learned of their incredible discovery of sky gnomes. Consider that 1) SkyTV plans to market these sky gnomes to their entire SkyTV subscriber base, 2) sky gnomes did not exist before today, and 3) we are talking about gnomes in the sky here — they are traditionally highly earth-bound creatures. Buy and hold.

Dwarves
The increased interest in dwarves has been well documented but they have further to go. As the Wall Street Journal noted, “some people are just into lavish dwarf entertainment.” Indeed. Increased desire for lavish dwarf entertainment is a long-term secular trend that we see continuing for the forseeable future. In fact, dwarf-related leisure options have heretofore been available only to the uber-wealthy including former Tyco (TYC) CEO L. Dennis Kozlowski and star Fidelity traders. However, we fully expect that time-shares and other financing options will make delightful dwarf diversions increasingly affordable to the middle class. Buy and hold.

Elves
Elves pose an interesting conundrum for any fundamentals-oriented investor. Clearly the group has benefited from Lord of the Rings exposure over the past three years. Now, with Peter Jackson’s masterpiece in the rearview mirror, elf investors are left with the historical (and unfair, we believe) association with fairies. Hold.
Compare and decide:

vs.


I’m Short “Mexican Mole Sauce”

Mexican sauces are a really “hot” segment. Money inflows to new emerging sauce ETF’s have been a beacon announcing the market’s interest. But before you gobble up one of these funds, you need to consider what you are sticking your hard earned dollars into.

Mexican Mole Sauce is a storied chile sauce, flavored with cinnamon, and a bevy of exotic spices. Sell-side analysts adore Mexican mole sauce, using their feather pens to scribe about its “dynamic culinary miscegenation opportunities” and its recent “binomial marketing initiative.” But fundamentally, Mole Sauce looks like dirt and it TASTES like dirt. It takes a lot of tequila and a lot of Mexicans to produce. Altogether it is a costly and lengthy process.

Management has not addressed the risks of competitive sauces sourcing Mexicans from China. In fact, Mexican Mole Sauce has no China strategy whatsoever. And a footnote in the K reveals an even deeper problem. Listed in the ingredient section: “one teaspoon anise seed.” We recommend shorting Mexican Mole Sauce and shorting anise seed as well. Target price 7 pesos.


I’m Long Supreme Justice Dance Parties

People fear that SC Nominee John Roberts will be an originalist constructionist contemplaterist platonic lover of agape. But all that “legal” analysis obscures the clear trends towards greater amounts of dance parties in the Supreme Court, a trend from which our readers can profit. The so-called “classic dance moves” are highly levered to Supreme Justice Dance Parties, so consider stocking your portfolio with the Sprinkler, Walking the Dog and even the high beta Jack Knife. Price targets of $Perf, $Perf.8 and $3.Perfty-perf, respectively.


Perf

Great call on Z, Juggles. You’ve done it again. Apparently Oscar the Grouch (who’s underweight everything) was on cnbc this morning hyping the letter z. It’s up big in the after-market, real big.

Also I’ve been meaning to tell the world about “perf”. It’s a number that I just invented. It’s between 6 and 7, not a decimal, a new integer. It’s on the number line in every place any number would be, the tens spot (perfty), the hundreds spot (perf-hundred), and so on. The numeral of perf is kind of like a capital E, unfortunately there’s no key on the keyboard for it – yet. I’m quite obviously long perf. It’s up perfty-perf percent just since I started writing this. I know, I don’t believe it either, it’s unbelievable.


Long Cephalopods

Short Grammar.


I’m Short “First Post”

Been overrated for awhile, weak book value, its fundamentals suffer from a cap structure built for speed rather than earnings. The Posting Industry is driven by quality on a primary basis, while timeliness is a secondary or tertiary factor. We have seen the industry move away from the infatuation with “First Post” as the market moving slashdot segment has matured. Our economists expect this trend to continue indefinitely. Target price for “First Post” is $Z.


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