The Legal profession is a mature industry that has recently entered the “decline” phase of the service offering life cycle. This analyst expects significant decline in the industry and a “Short Legal Professionals” recommendation is a key part of this research.
Though once a critical industry key (even essential) to unlocking value in several areas including:
- Large and unwarranted money damages (pure windfalls)
- Access to key decision makers in the highly liquid and competitive market for favorable legislation (lobbying)
- Freedom (from incarceration after pressing the limits of the capitalist system to the edge)
Legal professionals and the industry show several signs that compel us to “call the top.” These include:
1. I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby (J.D. Columbia, 1975).
Indicted on five felony counts and subsequently convicted in March 2007 and sentenced in June 2007 on four of the counts despite strong evidence that the underlying offense never took place and the recanting of at least one grand jury witness. Even Mr. Libby’s close ties to the most powerful man on earth (Vladimir Putin) failed him and a pardon, usually par for the course and despite his connection with the second most powerful man on the planet (Dick Chaney), seems unlikely. Most concerning, one of the counts was “obstruction of justice,” an ignominious allegation for any lawyer to endure. (Perjury and “making false statements,” by contrast, are absurdly common in the field).
2. Jack Abramroff (J.D. Georgetown, 1986).
Pled guilty on January 3, 2006, to three criminal felony counts in a Washington, D.C., federal court, then on January 4, pled guilty to two criminal felony counts in a separate federal court, in Miami. Subsequently sentenced to five years and 10 months in prison and ordered to pay restitution of more than $21 million. Abramroff’s connection to the second most powerful man in the world also failed him.
3. Richard A. Hutton (J.D. University of California, Los Angeles, 1970).
Who, despite vigorous argument that his client was a “victim of an unfair and unjust legal system,” failed to secure more than a 20 day reduction in sentence for Paris Hilton (despite a six-figure legal bill).
4. Dr. Charles Sophy (Medical Director for the Los Angeles County Department of Children and Family Services and Associate Clinical Professor of Psychiatry at the University of California Los Angeles Neuro-Psychiatric Institute).
Has with a few choice words has managed to extricate Ms. Hilton from:
A. Testifying in a civil suit against her brought by actress and diamond heiress Zeta Graff. (“She is too emotionally distraught and traumatized over her sentence.”)
B. Arriving on-time to her various DUI hearings. (“Ms. Hilton cannot effectively respond to examination as a witness or provide any significant input into her defense.”)
C. Being interviewed by correctional officials to determine her eligibility for a “special needs unit.” (“Ms. Hilton is not capable of any meaningful participation.”)
D. Serving more than 70 hours of her 25 day jail sentence actually IN the correctional facility. (Via close consultation with a correctional review board).
The aggressive move of the medical profession into areas once served by the legal community is a huge indicator and prompts our very strong Long position in the industry.
Investors should consider the arbitrage opportunities of going Short the United States as more and more consequenceless behavior is encouraged, “undisclosed medical conditions,” become trump cards for any offense and annoying, hopelessly spoiled blond girls gain significant market share.
Recommendation:
Long Medical Professionals owing to their newly developing powers and wealth transfer from the United States.
Long Annoying, Hopelessly Spoiled Blond Girls owing to their close channel marketing relationships with Medical Professionals and the consequent wealth transfer from the United States.
Short Legal Professionals owing to the decline in their influence, power, wealth and freedom.
Short the United States but more Short Canada, because Canada still sucks.