Topping the Bottom

by Mr Juggles

I’m calling the top on the bottom. So many people have been calling the bottom. For instance, today non-farm payrolls were down 80k and unemployment jumped to 5.1% (both are clearly trending negatively) and yet the market is rallying (S&P500 up 11pts, Nasdaq up 26pts). This must mark the bottom!
Other bottom-marking rallies:

  • Bear Stearns bankruptcy rally
  • UBS $19bn writedown rally
  • Fed liquidity injection rally (several)
  • Doug Kass, Bear turning Bull rally
  • Sovereign fund injecting enough capital to achieve solvency rally (several)
  • Commodity bubble bursting rally

That’s a lot of rallies based on various factors that certainly, definitely, surely mark the bottom. Unless they don’t. Which they don’t.

Recommendation: Short the bottom. Go long the top.

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POSTED: 04/4/08 2:00 PM
Comment (222)


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Comments

  1. Barry Ritholtz
    April 4th, 2008 | 3:36 pm

    Um, the post about Doug Kass was a joke . . .

  2. JCauto
    April 4th, 2008 | 3:47 pm

    DJIA down 0.3% today.

    Are you happy now, Juggles? YOU’VE RUINED CHRISTMAS

  3. Richard Roma
    April 6th, 2008 | 12:28 pm

    You go, helicopter Ben! If he keeps this up, I predict the rates will be -1% by the end of June i.e. people will actually be charged to save money.

  4. Mr Juggles
    April 6th, 2008 | 1:05 pm

    Barry-
    We know. But if we can recommend theoretical securities, then we can also discuss theoretical rallies of securities (whether real or theoretical).

    Make sense?
    Juggles