I’m calling the top on the bottom. So many people have been calling the bottom. For instance, today non-farm payrolls were down 80k and unemployment jumped to 5.1% (both are clearly trending negatively) and yet the market is rallying (S&P500 up 11pts, Nasdaq up 26pts). This must mark the bottom!
Other bottom-marking rallies:
- Bear Stearns bankruptcy rally
- UBS $19bn writedown rally
- Fed liquidity injection rally (several)
- Doug Kass, Bear turning Bull rally
- Sovereign fund injecting enough capital to achieve solvency rally (several)
- Commodity bubble bursting rally
That’s a lot of rallies based on various factors that certainly, definitely, surely mark the bottom. Unless they don’t. Which they don’t.
Recommendation: Short the bottom. Go long the top.