Wisdom of Crowds: Help Me Short

by Mr Juggles

Here are three sectors with terrible fundamentals:

  1. Autos — No demand. Terrible labor relations. Rising gas prices. EPA is about to crack down.
  2. Paper — China is killing paper pricing.
  3. Housing — As mortgage financing falls apart, so does the housing sector.

The most surefire way to make money shorting a stock would to be to find a company that somehow participated in all three of these known negative trends. Therefore, I appeal to you, the crowd to help me find a manfacturer of RVs made out of paper. Or an operator of garages for paper automobiles. Or a home builder who designs and sells houses made out of paper made out of automobiles.

I am desperate. If these companies don’t exist, perhaps we should start one so we can then short it?

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POSTED: 05/10/07 9:36 AM
Comment (13)


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Comments

  1. proales
    May 10th, 2007 | 11:19 am

    Sounds a lot like Pulte Homes, they build shiesty houses, largely out of paper, and do so in the furthest suburbs where people have to drive forever…

  2. Billa
    May 10th, 2007 | 1:48 pm

    KMB- They are in paper, have partnerships with auto-parts suppliers and provide HVAC filters for the home building industry.

  3. HarlemHaberdasher
    May 10th, 2007 | 3:17 pm

    Look to the Japanese markets, where it may be possible to find companies that sell origami houses and cars.

  4. JCauto
    May 10th, 2007 | 3:22 pm

    KMB is a great buy. I’ve got a $78 price objective on it.

    I’d recommend shorting Kowa Spinning Company (OSA 3117). Six business segments: real estate, golf practice ranges, paper, medical products, automobiles, and office materials.

  5. JCauto
    May 10th, 2007 | 3:23 pm

    Plus it’s japanese, supporting HarlemHaberdasher’s hypothesis.

  6. Series7.5
    May 10th, 2007 | 4:07 pm

    PHM has a natural hedge in place as crashing paper prices improve margins on sheety home sales

  7. Irrelevant
    May 10th, 2007 | 4:26 pm

    Thanks for narrowing me search on the long side down to three sectors… Where were you 12 mos. ago with these great short ideas?

    Want a short? Short steel here.

  8. jack of all trades
    May 10th, 2007 | 4:35 pm

    anybody heard of a small fallen angel named GM…they make horrible cars and lend to horrific credits via their sub prime arm Rescap…my money is on GM entering the paper market as soon as toyota finally destroys them

  9. The Dryer
    May 10th, 2007 | 4:48 pm

    Mitsubishi.

  10. Skyscrapper
    May 11th, 2007 | 8:31 am

    Short steel? I guess China and India are going to start using adobe??? Short concrete too, and oil! I suppose you might get a quick downturn from being overbought, but for the LT you’d be crazy to short steel.

  11. Mr Juggles
    May 11th, 2007 | 11:07 am

    Skyscrapper-
    That’s an interesting idea. Adobe already provides some of the internet’s basic “building blocks.” Their new Apollo project is likely to be the cornerstone for the new wing on the house that is the Internet.

    If China & India has truly figured out a way to substitute Adobe’s products for steel, we are all in trouble. Emerging markets juice + nectar of Internet P/E = China & India domination.

  12. Sir Equity Go
    May 11th, 2007 | 1:39 pm

    Juggles,
    I believe Skysrapper was referring to adobe clay, which is used to build pueblos on the mesa. I am going to go on a limb and recommend shorting adobe clay, pueblos and the mesa; complimentary longs include conquistadore`s, and small pox. adobe is almost as inferior as turf homes, popular in 18th century Ireland. def short turf homes

  13. MD Entrenchment Tool
    May 11th, 2007 | 7:10 pm

    Did someone on the desk write some naked calls on funny?

    Why are we sitting here going into the weekend yet again short the funny as a book?