Archive for June, 2011

Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing 6-26-2011

Any approach to scientific inference which seeks to legitimise an answer in response to complex uncertainty is, for me, a totalitarian parody of a would-be rational learning process.
-Sir Adrian Frederick Melhuish Smith

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Short Live-Action Penguins

Box Office Mojo has analysis on the filmic penguin market:

Despite its Liar Liar alienated father angle, Mr. Popper’s Penguins is shaping up to be a miss for Jim Carrey, who used to knock this kind of movie out of the park. The movie seems like an odd duck for June, and the live penguins aren’t as warm and inviting as other critters, anthropomorphized or otherwise. Animated penguins have had some success in Happy Feet and as supporting players in the Madagascar movies, but Surf’s Up wiped out in June 2007. Live-action penguins are untested outside of March of the Penguins, but Mr. Popper still is no Ace Ventura or Doctor Dolittle or even Evan Almighty.

Recommendation: Live-action penguins are “untested” so only those who can stomach not only the volatility, but the substantial downside risk are playing in those names. We’re short live-action penguins and underweight animated penguins. A catalyst for a change in our opinion would be the onset of another Ice Age or alternatively a substantial increase in the popularity of Italian Spiderman, the latter of which would result even more calls (e.g. demand) for pinguini.