October 3, 2012
Things have never looked worse for Mitt Romney. We think they can only get better.
Since securing the Republican party’s mandate, Romney had hovered near a coin-flip to beat The Obama. Then Romney made the unfortunate mistake of personally insulting half the country in attempt to secure votes, an unconventional and seemingly unsuccessful strategy. Romney’s odds have subsequently cratered down to near 20% per Intrade, while FiveThirtyEight has him at less than 15%.
His performance in general suggests nothing more than a guy who wears laundry emblazoned with a big ol’ “R“, under which he has some sweet special pajamas. Romney has shown himself to be a phony suit who is bad at talking, an unfortunate status when running against a cynically empty suit who is good at talking. It’s easy to get caught up in the negatives of Romney’s candidacy and his situation.
As abstract value investors, we can’t help but look at the positives. Namely, Romney’s outstanding fundamentals: his strong chin, his fantastic hair, his above average height, and, most importantly, his maleness. The fundamental ratios are off the charts, no matter how you look at them. ChinHair:Age-35, Height:Avg Height, Trailing Acute Angles Outstanding, etc. The man seems like he should be the President. Seriously, look at him.
Recommendation: Long Romney. Investors in Romney’s Initial Presidential Offering bought in at a price of Likely President; the sell-side threw out consensus targets of Two-term President as soon as publishing began. That’s the past — those investors’ portfolios have so much red in them, they look like the punchline of a Kermit-in-a-blender joke. And it’s ridiculous to project that Romney will ever trade up to President. But his fundamentals are so strong that there is a floor in how badly he can trade; we still think he can bounce back to Yeah, You Can Kinda Imagine Him Having Been President.