Long Optimism

by Johnny Debacle

Game Over it is NotThanksgiving at its core is about two things. First, killing the Indians with pox blankets and the strong anglo-saxon desire for rapine. Second, being able to give thanks for the things that you do have. As such, these things continue to be my frame.

In the current climate, where doom and gloom lurk in the hearts of men and irrationality and obliviousness continue to lurk in the hearts of women, we think it’s time to go Long Long. And by that, it’s time to long optimism. It’s cheap right now for three specific reasons:

  1. If you have seen Aliens then you know things could be worse. Much worse. I mean, as far as I know, no squidlike xenomorph has attached itself to any person or corporation’s head, fed eggs down its throat leading to the birth of a larger more aggressive homicidal xenomorph which has acid for blood. Yet that is exactly what has currently been priced into the market. We are comfortable putting a stake out there and saying no such xenomorph event is likely to actually happen.
  2. People are still alive, we expect them to continue to be interested in living and will probably at some point buy things again to aid their desire to survive and procreate; things like iPhones and bottle service. This is pretty reliable cause to be optimistic about optimism as, apparently, this has been happening for 200,000 consecutive years or so. We expect people to still live, to still do things to survive and perhaps maintain a living standard above that of the dark ages. No matter what happens in the next six months, barring a xenomorph situation, this is likely to still be true even if Goldman Sachs is not long for this world.
  3. We are at, or past, Peak Roubini. I found him to be interesting and a great resource for many years and he had a certain measure of prescience. Good for him. But at the end of the day, he is just another Euro Prof looking to dip his wick in coeds and suffers from a huge case of the over-exposed. Again good for him. But at this point, I would not be surprised to see NBC come back with a reality show called Dr. Doom and features Roubini flailing Trump over and over again with some sort of Italian leather-whip thing while sipping mimosas. There is a bubble in former bubble callers.

Recommendation: We are optimistic about optimism because it’s just incredibly cheap. Perspective will cause a mean reversion to “Glass-Half-Half-Full” from “Glass-Half-Empty” which would yield a “division by zero” return over a 3 year investment horizon.

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