Long or Short Capital

Dear Alan,

During your time at the Fed, you were famously circumspect. Now you can’t shut up. Please do so.

Yesterday, I was reading an article on Bloomberg detailing a recent talk you gave. You made a lot of points, probably a few too many. Let’s address a few.

• “Obviously there is a limit to the extent that obligations to foreigners can reach,” Greenspan said in a speech in Washington yesterday. The dollar’s decline to its lowest since 1997 may be “an indication America is approaching this limit.”

  Thanks for the crack analysis, Alan. I don’t think I could have figured out that foreigners have finite resources. Also, I thought the dollars weakness might be somewhat related to the fact that you have encouraged rampant inflation by 1) artificially suppressing interest rates and 2) rigging the government statistics to make sure said inflation didn’t appear to the public other than in their weekly bills and (lack of) savings accounts.

• Greenspan first predicted that investors abroad would tire of financing the U.S. current-account deficit in a Nov. 19, 2004, speech in Frankfurt. “A diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point.”

  Well thanks for addressing this issue while you still had some clout.

• Greenspan also said yesterday that the August surge in the cost of credit following increased defaults on U.S. subprime mortgages was an “accident waiting to happen,” given that investors were pricing risk too cheaply.

  Again, Alan, I think you’re trying to rewrite history here, no? Were you not on watch while interest rates were held down. Does the Fed not have oversight of the banking and lending system? So I guess you are pretty much responsible for not forcing lenders to focus on credit quality.

• The former Fed chief said central banks increasingly appear to have “lost control” of market interest rates beyond three to five years of maturity. Before departing the central bank in January 2006, he said the lack of increase in long-term Treasury note yields during a period of rising Fed rates was a “conundrum.”

  Alan, dude, this is not a conundrum. You don’t affect long-term interest rates any more because the markets don’t believe you. You are the central banker who cried wolf.

In conclusion, I would appreciate it if you would shut up, Alan. Ben has a hard enough job and is mucking it up enough already without you wading in every three days to provide running commentary. Your sonorous book has compensated you richly. Please retire to somewhere secluded, stocked with Ayn Rand pinups and preferably without a phone.

Sincerely,
Mr Juggles
CEO and Head Commissary
Long or Short Capital

Jack Donaghy: Lemon, I’m impressed! you’re starting to think like a businessman.
Liz Lemon: A businesswoman.
Jack Donaghy: I don’t think that’s a word.
From 30 Rock

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Yes, I realize that a sieve is used to separate desired objects from unwanted material. However, it also has colloquial meanings: “in metaphor and simile, sieve may often be used to refer to things that are leaky…In particular, in hockey, a goaltender who lets a lot of goals through is sometimes compared to a sieve.” This is is a vehicle people that people should put their money into? A SIeVe?

Recommendation: Do not invest in vehicles (SIVs) that are named after leaky containers or goalies who allow too many pucks into the net. That is dumb. Do not even ask about Super SIeVes. And we won’t mention anything about SLUT either.

Mugabe is only growing stronger in the world, his discorporated Zimbabwenomic-self is popping up on the very edge of dynamic economic policies. Kazakhstan has announced it will buy publicly listed Kazakh bank stocks until prices return to their normal price (in this case, “normal” should be read as “all time peak”):

Kazakhstan will respond to an “attack” by hedge funds by buying shares next week in the country’s banks that are listed on foreign exchanges to support prices, its prime minister said,

“Kazakhstan is under attack from hedge funds and we will fight back,” Karim Masimov said, after president Nursultan Nazarbayev complained the country was suffering from “unfounded” downgrades of its credit ratings.

…

The government said it would buy stock of banks until prices reach “pre-August levels” and will do the same for non-banking stocks “if warranted”. The state was also prepared to lend $4bn (£2bn) to banks to ensure liquidity, he said.

Kazakh banks have been hit by the ripples from the US sub-prime crisis. Kazkommertsbannk, Alliance and Halyk Savings Bank are all listed in London. Many banks in the country have also been hurt by an outflow of deposits and waning confidence in the national currency, the tenge. In August, banks suffered “massive withdrawals”.

Recommendation: The Borat mania caused us to be short everything Kazakh, but since then K-Stan has been flying totally under the radar. The implications of a Mugabe-style explicit government put on Kazakh stocks, leads to our valuation models predicting a price for any Kazakh bank stock of X+1, where X is the current market price. We rate Kazakh bank stocks as a “Strong Buy Indeed” because prices, per our valuation model, can only go higher.

NASDAQ stocks, especially those with high betas, fell last Thursday because of a JPMorgan equity research note expressing caution about Baidu’s (NASDAQ: BIDU)3Q revenue estimates. Baidu, which had been trading up several percent at an all-time high of $359, quickly dropped 10%, later closing at $309. That would seem reasonable except:

• Baidu took the rest of the market with it. Companies like Google, Apple, Research in Motion, and Amazon.com all went from being positive on the day to deeply negative before rebounding slightly. Keep in mind that Baidu accounts for $~66mm of quarterly revenue (i.e., nothing) and yet it is moving hundreds of billions of market cap a continent away!
• The same JPMorgan analyst who reduced his Baidu estimates today had upgraded Baidu two weeks ago and initiated with a $400 price target. In a report titled Billions and Billions, he had recommended buying a stock with a 34x 2010E EPS multiple

Several weeks ago, we came out and admitted that finance is a scam. It sounded like we were coming clean, but we admit, we held back a little that we didn’t share. In fact, finance is way more a scam than we admitted.

Citigroup (NYSE: C) (among other banks including BofA (NYSE: BAC) and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM)) is creating a “super conduit”, essentially a $100 billion backstop for structured investment vehicles (SIV) to add a bid into a bidless market, a market which is 25% comprised of Citigroup SIVs. When the short term loans issued by SIVs to fund their purchase of riskier loan assets comes due, this super conduit will buy the short term paper if the existing holder decides not to roll their existing exposure. The solution to the SIV problem is….a bigger SIV…errr we mean a “conduit” to make sure things are “orderly-like, see”! Citigroup, with the coordination of the US Treasury, will be bailing itself out from having to put these assets onto their balance sheets….and charging a fee for the privilege!

We amend our previous admission to reflect the following: “Finance is really a scam where banks and large international financial firms, all of which are incrementally better and more prestigious than your firm, get together with the collusive glue of the central government, and indemnify themselves from ever having to bring a mistake onto their balance sheets, much less be held accountable for a mistake in any meaningful way.”

Carelessness. I lost my one true love. I started drinking. The first thing I know, I’m in a card game. Then I’m in a crap game. I wake up in a pool hall. Then this big Mexican lady drags me off the table, takes me to Philadelphia. She leaves me alone in her house, and it burns down. I wind up in Phoenix. I get a job as a Chinaman. I start working in a dime store, and move in with a 13-year-old girl. Then this big Mexican lady from Philadelphia comes in and burns the house down. I go down to Dallas. I get a job as a “before” in a Charles Atlas “before and after” ad. I move in with a delivery boy who can cook fantastic chili and hot dogs. Then this 13-year-old girl from Phoenix comes and burns the house down. The delivery boy — he ain’t so mild: He gives her the knife, and the next thing I know I’m in Omaha. It’s so cold there, by this time I’m robbing my own bicycles and frying my own fish. I stumble onto some luck and get a job as a carburetor out at the hot-rod races every Thursday night. I move in with a high school teacher who also does a little plumbing on the side, who ain’t much to look at, but who’s built a special kind of refrigerator that can turn newspaper into lettuce. Everything’s going good until that delivery boy shows up and tries to knife me. Needless to say, he burned the house down, and I hit the road. The first guy that picked me up asked me if I wanted to be a star. What could I say?
Bob Dylan on how he chose his career

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Today, the WSJ has an article on the recent syndications in the leveraged loan market of formerly hung deals that outlines in detail the “Finace is a Scam” piece from JD last week.

Yet for all the relief among bankers, the sales haven’t come easily — or profitably. They have offered only the highest-quality portions of the debt for sale, and that at a loss. They have also made concessions that could come back to hurt them, such as selling the debt at a discount while the huge supply raises questions about how long both Wall Street’s united front and the upbeat mood will last.

So far, what has been sold is a drop in the bucket. Standard & Poor’s Leveraged Commentary & Data estimates that about $30 billion of a total of $310 billion in North American LBO loans have been sold so far. As much as $100 billion in debt is due to come to the market in the next 30 days alone.
…

A week before the W Hotel presentation, banks successfully orchestrated the sale of the first big chunk of the $24 billion debt for the First Data buyout. They surprised even themselves by selling almost double the amount planned. The bad news: to accomplish that they agreed to sell the debt at 96 cents per dollar, locking in losses after their fees were figured into the deal.

In some cases, private-equity firms whose deals the debt is financing were among the bigger buyers of the debt. KKR, for example, expressed interest in purchasing a large amount of First Data debt, eventually receiving a $400 million allocation, according to people familiar with the deal.

Recommendation: A portion, if not all, of that $400mm First Data ticket from KKR was financed by Citi. $400mm is an extremely large amount of loans to buy in one deal. Citi and other banks probably provided similar financing to other hedge funds and private equity players; essentially on a net basis, not really selling these loan assets but paying a fee (on top of the discount 96 price or whatever) to get these loans off their books and getting publications to report that these deals have cleared the market with the hope that the banks can then move the rest of the overhang, which is an actual order of magnitude larger than what the banks have moved since the credit crunch began. But don’t worry, credit markets are fine!

In a post a few months ago, we outlined the power of Zimbabwenomics, as outlined by economic genius Robert Mugabe in his Mugabe Efficiency Theory. A gap in his theory noted by none of you, is that he does not explicitly address interest rates. Luckily, John McCain, has been working to plug this gap. Per Matthew Yglesias writing on last night’s Republican Presidential Debate:

John McCain on monetary policy: “I’m glad whenever they cut interest rates, I wish interest rates were zero.”

Recommendation: This stance dovetails well with Mugabe Efficiency Theory and extends the “if you make things more affordable, people will buy more” rationale to interest rates. If interest rates are zero, assets will only continue to increase in value because they are more affordable and thus there will be more demand for them, making them worth more. This much is obvious and there is no downside to a zero interest rate policy. But why stop at zero? Negative interest rates would make things even MORE affordable. We look to negative interest rates as the next frontier of Zimbabwenomics.

If you’ve gone into finance from any liberal arts college, you almost certainly have encountered and befriended in the past people who act like finance types are scammy. “They don’t really make anything.” “They just move numbers around and somehow get paid for it.” “They have to be leeches.”

Normally our response was something like “At age 32, I will be worth my weight in gold, literally” or the more cogent, “Finance is a coordinator of economic activity, a grand sorter of what endeavours are the best for the world.”

But with this admission by Citigroup (NYSE: C) that it is loaning money to KKR to buy hung loans off Citi’s books, we will admit it: finance is a scam. A big scam in which people who are incrementally better than you in every way, smugly take money from the plebes, launder it through assorted transactions, and then redistribute to themselves in the form of huge bonuses, bonuses incommensurate to the zero value which they add to society.

From user Ignatius:

Even as economists have derided the U.S. dollar as heading toward parity with Monopoly money, Monopoly money itself has held its value with marked consistency.

Price of Boardwalk in 1950: m$400
Price of Boardwalk in 2007: m$400
Concurrent decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar: 87%

Recommendation: Not only would the switch to monopoly provide the US with a more stable currency, but it would also grant the Fed even further control over the economy by enabling them to set the “house rules.” By determining the “Free Parking Rules” and financial outcomes from such events as “rolling snake eyes” and “landing directly on Go”, the Fed could steer the economy with even greater precision. Too little liquidity? Just tell the “banker” to actually become a bank and provide loans rather than solely acting as a cash register. More research is needed, but there seem to be real and compelling reasons for the US to switch to the Monopoly currency.

Everything’s out the window. Tomorrow’s one game. Everything in the last two weeks is in the past and now we’ve got to focus on beating the Padres for a chance to go to the playoffs.
Matt Holliday of the Colorado Rockies, on tomorrow’s one game playoff against the Padres

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Dear Wisdom of Crowds,

I need help writing my new book, “How to Get Rich in Dollars,” and I am trying to think of alternative titles so I could daisy chain them together with “or” to make my book seem more coolest. Current ideas include:

• How to Get Poor in Euros
• All Your US Asset Is Belong To Me
• Permacycle
• 4,763 Ways to Skin an Asset Bubble
• Love in the Time of Non-Existent Reported Inflation
• Pootie Tang II

This is an imaginary book on real issues, so I expect an especially helpful amount of help from those who can help.

Thanks in advance.

Yours truly,
Johnny Debacle

Pfizer’s (NYSE: PFE) new anti-smoking pill, Chantix, has experienced the fastest sales ramp of any Pfizer drug. Chantix doesn’t contain nicotine; instead, it targets the brain receptors that make smokers crave nicotine. But there are some concerns that the drug causes sleep disruption and abnormal dreams. Here is one example:

The second night, I dreamed I was dating a dinosaur, about eight feet tall and very cute, as dinosaurs go. He lived in a little grotto in the woods near my father (Dad actually lives in a city), and the dream included odd details such as us planning a trip to the seaside and me trying to decide whether to pack a bikini or one-piece.

And here is another:

I dreamed I and two other women were being held hostage by Wild Bill Hickock and his gunslinger pals in a room above a saloon in the Old West. I concocted an escape plot that involved me slitting the throat of one of his henchmen, hiding the body, packing up our stuff and trying to sneak out.
Unfortunately, I also suggested we all go to the bathroom first — as if there were “bathrooms” back in the 1870s — and we got caught by Wild Bill himself, who came back unexpectedly early from a night of gambling.

Further due diligence reveals that these dreams are not “abnormal,” they are actually pretty sweet hallucinations that would normally require at least a hit or two of acid.

Recommendation: LoS proprietary research indicates that the market overlap of smokers and those desiring dinosaur-makeout dreams is quite high. Long Pfizer, assuming they create a separate marketing campaign to target this segment.