Reply to Reader Comment on Australian Human Exchange Rates

by Johnny Debacle

In response to our report on the market prices and expected trading levels of 24yo Australian Surfer’s life, reader Yves Smith asked:

Ahem, I’m surprised at the emphasis on the Aussie’s target price, and the failure to consider that he might be undervalued on a current basis but lack much future appreciation beyond that. I don’t see any sum-of-the-parts analysis, and his most valuable asset has been overlooked (Australian citizenship).

American tend to overestimate the future value of Australians based on their performance overseas (Rupert Murdoch, Nicole Kidman, James Wolfensohn, Mel Gibson, Jacques Nasser). Australians in Australia, particularly surfer boys, peak early. All that sun and booze. Good looking straight men over 30 are surpringly hard to find.

No, I considered those factors which is why the target isn’t more than $120k AUD.

I think when the first single human hostile financial takeover is done in a Western Democracy, you will see Cerberus or some other vulture buying people at valuations levels of $3-4mm minimum assuming regulators allow taking on all of the assets (indentity, experiences, memories). This will be helped by the release of the iBrain, a small stylishly designed personal electronic device by Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) which will allow people to upload and download their entire existence via Apple’s revolutionary iTunes marketplace. It will not only allow people to share personalities but it will also play MP3s. Expect an announcement at MacWorld 2008.

We see this surfer boy as as similar to a profitable but declining newspaper business which you know will experience secular decline but in the meantime can be profitably milked for cash. And while a 24yo surfer certainly is an early peaker, that type of asset is still a great entrance point for interesting but older gentlemen to access markets of novelty groupies as well the desirable “aimless women under 25” market.

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