Author Archive

Rich Writer Poor Thinker

Robert Kiyosaki is a maroon.

I haven’t read Rich Dad Poor Dad but I assume it contains common sense probably hidden amongst boring platitudes and high levels of noise (Ed note: this assumption as to how much common sense is in the book is being challenged by feedback from readers). The writer, Robert Kiyosaki, has turned his book and himself into a brand for repackaging common sense and selling it to idiots in the form of books, speeches and classes at the Learning Annex. He probably has even found a way to work “consulting of dubious value” into his product offering as well. This type of commerce is fine. If you can sell products to The Idiot Demographic, then more power to you.

But he seems to have evolved from “common sense in layman’s terms” to “erroneous information in layman’s terms” with a side helping of “terrible terrible advice.” For the last year plus, Rich Dad Poor Dad has been espousing that, in the words of a reader:

the stockmarket/mutual funds were for suckers… [you should be] long real estate, and metals, etc…[all this] last year riiight at the top of the bubble, and that if you dont get rich its because your lazy, because anyone can buy a building, convert it into an apartment, and sell for triple the price. Buy high and sell low kids!

Now he has completely contradicted all that advice in this article Rich Today, Poor Tomorrow which outlines how his McMansion living, double vacation home buying 3-kid having friends went from millionaires to selling their BMWs (the horror!). The formerly non-lazy hustling investors who were protecting themselves against inflation (or was his fear, HYPER-inflation) by buying real estate with freedom loan financing are now fools. This alone is a testament to the value of his advice.

He then reinvents macroeconomics by stating that:

cash + credit = economy

Yep folks, it’s that simple. If cash + credit go up, we get inflation. If cash + credit go down, we get deflation. If the credit bubble bursts, all these freedom loan speculator types will be “short squeezed” as he calls it (it’s not really a short squeeze, if you want to use a trading analogy, it’s more like a margin call) and have to pay lenders cash to keep their collateral position whole in the face of declining real estate prices.

This is idiotic. In fact, this article is so terrible, I find it difficult to even know how to properly form an argument against it. It doesn’t even make sense.

But here is more evidence to unback-up the truck on Rich Dad Poor Dad guy.

From his first ever Yahoo article:

“I’m very bearish on the U.S. dollar and have been for years. That’s why I have so many of them. This sounds like a contradiction, but let me explain. The reason I have so many dollars, even though I think they’re worth less and less, is because I don’t hang on to them. In my mind, cash is trash..

In the late 1990s, when people were pouring money into the tech and dot-com stocks, my dollars moved into oil, gold, silver, and real estate, when prices were low. Today, because the dollar continues to drop in value, I keep moving my money into those same asset classes, although much more cautiously.”

From a later article:

In my opinion, that means getting out of anything else that’s “paper with ink on it” — anything backed by the full faith and confidence of the SS U.S.A. That means I’m very suspicious of stocks, bonds, savings, and mutual funds, especially if they’re U.S. dependent. Although I love real estate, I’m suspicious of any piece of property that doesn’t generate cash flow today. I don’t invest in future appreciation of real estate — not today, at least.

While he is effectively mananaging his intelligence, and I applaud that, what exactly does this leave people to do with their money? He advocates against cash, stocks, bonds, saving money, buying things, the US, real estate, etc etc. What is left? Brine shrimp futures? Short or long positions in abstract ideas like Perf?

Recommendation: While we respect selling common sense to idiots, if you sell wrong sense to idiots, we have to short you if only to maintain a feeling of moral rectitude. Furthermore, we recommend a blanket shorting of anyone who speaks at the Learning Annex or anyone who has written a book with “Success”, “Rich” or “Positive” in the title. By the way, if you would like to learn more about our views, we will be hosting a free* workshop** “Don’t Believe Anything You Hear at the Learning Annex” at the Learning Annex this Saturday.

*Free after a payment of $899 for the 1st day or $1299 for two days
**Not actually a workshop or actually a real event

Addendum: Here is an in depth review of Rich Dad, Poor Dad and Kiyosaki, I haven’t read it but the criticisms match his columns as well and point to the fact that the book is less common sense than I assumed.


Emerging (Market) Opportunities

The New York Observer recently ran a great article where they asked the terrible people who frequent Bungalow 8 to comment on the Iraq war. I highly recommend it.

“I live this debauched life of partying and fun,” he added, “but you have to think about Darfur, you have to think about Iraq, you have to think about the pressing danger of Iran. I think people should enjoy themselves—which I’m not going to stop doing—but at the same time, there should be a level of guilt.”

He looked around Bungalow 8. “Do you think the Iraqis, little villagers in Kandahar, are doing this?” he said. “None of them are. And that’s the sad, awful truth.”

Recommendation: As you know, I often start businesses based on whims, run them until I bore, and then sell them for a huge profit. Well, this d-bag actually has a point. There are no high-end, exclusive clubs where the douchebags of Iraq can go to escape the plebes and pay thousands of Iraqi Dinar for the same bottle of liquor that retails for 49 drachma in the local store. This is clearly a stellar opportunity. Open Bunker 8, the hottest club Bagdhad has ever seen, and you will be rewarded down the line.


Submit Form Fixed

We broke it, we fixed it, we are you go to source for breaking and fixing. Submit your research to us here.


Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Widsom comes from suffering and error and when the passions die down and the observations begin.

-David Brooks in a March 8th, 2007 Op-Ed

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing


Long our Readers and their Submissions

We have noticed that there is a tremendous of talent lurking in the comments and around the periphery of our site. “You” is an asset that Long or Short Capital would like to exploit. We encourage you to try out our new Submit feature and submit to us hilarious financial articles and that, funny permitting, we can publish for all your anonymous peers to see. Let’s see what shakes out.

Submit Now and often.


I Will Teach You to Be Rich: Investing in the Cookie Level

At a recent meeting of internet gurus, I heard one particularly guru-ish fellow remark that his company “collected anonymous user information at the cookie level.” A brilliant strategy! Companies have, for years, been investing up and down the OSI model stack, targeting the application, presentation, session, transport, network, data link, and physical layers. That’s a lot of layers (and internet dork talk). And yet no one — other than this one guru — has been targeting the sweetest, crumbliest, tastiest layer of all: the cookie level.

If you have been a diligent reader, you will know that finding a hot (and, in this case, sweet) sector is Step 1 in the Pure Play model of investing. Have at it.


An Awful Freudian Slip on Cerberus

Paraphrasing from NPR this morning on the circling of Daimler Chrysler (NYSE: DCX by private equity vultures:

Daimler Chrysler is reported to be exploring selling its Chrysler division. According to our sources, private qquity firm Cerberus has made several awfuls…offers for the unit.

The core competency of Cerberus is presenting firms with “awfuls”.


Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Casual commitments invite casual reversal, exposing portfolio managers to the damaging whipsaw of buying high and selling low. Only with the confidence created by a strong decision-making process can investors sell speculative excess and buy despair-driven value.” [Ed: our emphasis]
-David Swensen, Pioneering Portfolio Management

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing


Does Your Firm Block Our Site?

It has come to out attention that Mother Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) blocks our site which amazed us. That’s some serious net-nannying to block a site that lacks anything but incredible research and commentary which has been scientifically proven to generate amazing investment returns.

Do any of your firms block us? Feel free to leave a comment or email us (misterjuggles@gmail.com”) if your firm blocks us. This is just to tickle our curiousity. Anonymity will be preserved and respected as always, especially if you give us some material non-public information to Hold based on.


Madlibs for The Market of February 27th, 2007

NEW YORK — The stock of [Company Name] is down [Number greater than 4]% in trading today. The movement is reportedly due to a Chinese market meltdown on concerns that government regulators would [increase taxes / curb investment / invade Taiwan / destroy the Earth’s environment] and fears of [a recession / inflation / deflation / a war with Iran / an emerging market bubble / that purple bastard Grimace]. Also contributing to the market decline today were [former Fed wizard / the man responsible for this mess / old Jewish man] Alan Greenspan’s recent comments that the economy is [ headed for a recession/ doing OK right now / irrationally stable].

While no one is sure what the recently released report on [Economic Indicator] really means, since the statistics are vague and have almost no conclusive predictive power anyway, stock brokers across the world should live in fear of being thrown out of the windows of tall buildings.


Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Many traders aim to get out of harm’s way by avoiding exposure to rare events – a mostly defensive approach.

I am far more aggressive than those traders and go one step further; I have organized my career and business in such a way as to be able to benefit from them.

-Nassim Taleb whose new book Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable comes out April 17th, 2007.

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing


Compassionate Corporatism

From a WSJ article [subscription] describing the problems that blind pedestrians have in sensing oncoming hybrid vehicles (due to their quiet operation:

Toyota spokesman Bill Kwong says he wasn’t aware of the issue and believes that the responsibility lies with drivers and pedestrians to watch out for each other. Mr. Kwong adds, “One of the benefits of the vehicles is that they don’t contribute to traffic noise.”

[Ed: our emphasis]


Long Magical Ants

Situation: A Chinese man has been arrested and sentenced to death for bilking Chinese investors out of the 3bn yuan ($387mm) they invested in his sham company. He promised 60% returns on purchases of black ants that purportedly had therapeutic properties. He has (compellingly) defended himself by claiming that “he did not know the first thing about raising ants and was ‘quite unclear’ about the costs.”

Recommendation: Wang Zhendong’s fraudulent sales have roiled the market for magical ants worldwide and in China particularly. We recommend going long ants during this period of confusion. Buying ants that are “a natural remedy for ailments such as arthritis,” given the discounts available right now, is not dissimilar from buying Dynergy pipelines a month after the Enron scandal. Correlation trades in cathartic cephalopods and restorative rodents.


Long or Short Capital Reports Q2’07 Results

Long or Short Capital’s fiscal 2nd Quarter ended on 1/31/07, and the company reported its results in a press release:

Mr Juggles: “Good afternoon everyone, let me first state:

‘WOW we really killed it’.

Second, let me welcome everyone on the line to hear me talk about our 2nd consecutive best quarter ever. In the Q1 call, I let you know that we had been internally focused on the so-called “sequential same store traffic figure” and we delivered a “Googlesque” 146%; this quarter we delivered a 50% increase in SSST on top of that that elevated level. I’d like to reiterate the fact that we really killed it and you should say things like “Great quarter guys” and “Thanks for letting me talk in this Q&A, I promise to ask ticky tacky irrelevant questions to perfect my model and not any questions about your sketchy use of SAAP”.

But this quarter was not all about traffic. Our new primary internal focus was on a metric known as the “Eyeball Monetization Conversion” ratio. It’s a proxy for Long or Short’s efficiency at turning our readers into dollars. Last quarter our EMC ratio was $8.43 per thousand readers — note this is not based on page views; this quarter we launched initiatives and improved our mix to drive our EMC to $18.39. None of our competitors can say the same thing, proving that we have maintained our best in class performance.

We generated earnings per subscriberholder of $2.12 compared to $0.60 in Q1’07 and $0.38 in Q4’06. We generated $1,150 in revenue for the quarter, a 489% increase YOY, and 228% sequentially. We re-experimented with Adsense starting in October, and while we eked out decent performance through December, revenue per a click fell off a cliff in January forcing us to switch our ad sourcing back to the Yahoo! Publisher platform. Our timing turned out to be perfect as our revenue per click increased by 3-4x while our CTR increased reasonably, the latter more unexpected than the former. Text link advertising became the stalwart of our topline, although a smaller % contribution than expected. We sold all our inventory for the first time to date and are positioned for a round of price increases. We also exceeded expectations in some of our one-off initiatives including “Operation Sell Our Christmas Spirit Through Amazon.com” and our late in the month experimentation with CPA ads for Valentine’s Day.

Our subscribership increased from 381 to 508.

Our free cash flow took a big hit from working capital, which was unavoidable due to our topline growth. At 81.5% of sales, this is an area we know we need to improve and I’m confident we have the people in place to get it done and effect the necessary changes. Three weeks into February, we have already made headway towards this goal. We want to be at 30-35% of sales maximum.

We had our best quarter ever in terms of revenue, free cash flow and qualifying traffic. This may sound familiar because I said the same exact thing last quarter. Let me tell you something, I really hope to be on this call with you guys and gals three months from now saying the same exact thing for the third time in a row. Thanks for your time, and have a great afternoon.”

Note that the financials below are unaudited and may contain non-GAAP measures. All numbers comply with Seldom Accepted Accounting Principles (SAAP).

Unaudited Financial Results for Q2’07
Income Statement

Contextual CPC Revenue $239.24
CPA Revenue $120.32
Static Ad Revenue $783.41
Other Revenue $8

Total Revenue $1,150.97

Cost of Sales $19.55
One Time Charge $45.00
Marketing Expense $7.55
Operating Income $1,078.87

Balance Sheet

Cash $557.55
Accounts Receivable $787.43
Inventory $0.00
Prepaid Marketing/Hosting/Reg $150.95
Accounts Payable $0

Cash Flow Statement

Operating Cash Flow $470.70
Capex $0.00
Dividends $X.00

Performance Metrics

Visits 62,570
Pageviews 134,555
Clicks on ads 313
Subscribers by Email 109
Subscribers by XML 399
Inbound Links per Technorati 461 from 132 Sites
Technorati Rank 25,370
Inbound Links per Google ~367 sites
Google PageRank 5

Past Results (due to our reliance on SAAP, previous unaudited financial results are not reliable)
Long or Short Capital Q1’06 Results
Long or Short Capital Q2’06 Results
Long or Short Capital Q3’06 Results
Long or Short Capital Q4’06 Results
Long or Short Capital Q1’07 Results


« Previous PageNext Page »