Long or Short Capital

The market is starting to get what is up when it comes to what lurks in the depths of the ocean. Today the FT in an incisive piece of investigative journalism drew a link to Goldman Sachs and the coming Age of the Cephalopod:

Slurp – the great vampire squid strikes again! That now-infamous description of Goldman Sachs (in Rolling Stone magazine) is a tad hysterical. But it takes some sucking power to extract $3.4bn of quarterly net income within a year of a full-throated banking crisis. With Goldman’s shares close to levels before Lehman Brothers collapsed, you’d be forgiven for wondering if 2008 ever happened.

Do not be deceived. Beneath Goldman’s gleaming mantle is a cephalopod swimming with one powerful arm. Trading in fixed income, currency and commodities generated half the bank’s record net revenues, almost tripling from last year’s second quarter. This client-driven trading is part of Goldman’s DNA but cannot last. Trading margins remained at the historically wide levels of the first quarter (helped by competitors’ demise), while a broad-based recovery in markets induced clients to resume trading. Meanwhile, another stand-out area – underwriting equity and debt sales within the investment bank – owed much to capital raisings by beleaguered peers.

Other arms remain weak.

…

The government could yet opt to cut this sucker down to size. Calamari anyone?

GS (NYSE: GS) is up 4% due to this squid comp, so I think the market is poo-pooing any notion that the public will be dining on GS calamari. Or any other kind of calamari for that matter.

Recommendation: Goldman Sachs’ employees are genetically designed to make money from even the worst situations — the coming Fall of Man should be no exception. When everyone else’s books are well underwater, GS will be floating safe on piles of money. Long GS.

HT to SC

• We started almost 4 years ago with almost the same approach to blogspot and it was a rousing success, rousing I tell you #
• No idea how to measure whether this is successful today. Maybe if we end the day with more Followers than @LCDnews or save someone's life #
• Going to the bathroom *BRB* Listening to the Clash's White Man in Hammersmith Palais and eating a Hot Pocket. #
• Was looking for drafts in our WordPress console, there is one with no date that just says "Cow Bicep 70%". That's it. No hook, nothing. #
• Almost want to write it. Like a challenge. Write something satirical and financial about Cow Bicep 70%. Next tweet'lll do it in 140 chars #
• Searched GOOG for "cow bicep" + 70% and got no results. But cow bicep is strong. It should be in the results. Short GOOG. #
• That was awful. I'm going to go take down a cow bicep Hot Pocket to recover brb #
• What is it called when you simultaneously are jealous of and look down upon everyone around you during your commute? Adulthood? #
• Horse race update: Of those we follow, passed @crampell in followers. How do you like me now NYT's Economix? still well ahead of @LCDnews #
• http://flickchart.com might be the best way to destroy time since Strategic Craps http://bit.ly/10ClF9s. #
• Tough choice, Blade Runner vs Sin City. Like which of your children do you want to be killed? Online Sophie's Choice. Sorry Sin City #
• I wonder how many lawyers are billing $500+ while choosing between Jaws and Platoon. A tough choice btw, I gave the the shark the nod #
• Trying to decide whether I'd hit Meredith Whitney. My main concern is that she is husky enough to hit me. Plus her roided wrestelr hubby #
• Rookie mistake would be to bother with headshots, you need a view of the whole valley.
  http://bit.ly/OlBIL vs http://bit.ly/Uynjq #
• The latter would be a no (that outfit scares my penis) but the former is certainly intriguing. Zebra pelt drapery + come hither = Go-Team #
• About to conduct science experiment: I'm gonna take an online IQ test, then read Sarah Palin's op-ed http://bit.ly/75QM2, then retake test #
• After reading the IQ test then reading Sarah Palin's Op-Ed, I lost 4 IQ points based on tests at IqTests.com. Science is about knowing #
• Btw don't ever take IQ tests online. That site was ok but I did one where I had to click through 15 pages and uncheck 100 boxes #
• Horse race update: @LCDnews now has 131 followers, and is rising fast. @longorshort now suicidal as 176 is looking very vulnerable. #
• Yesterday, Jack Welch said women had to choose between kids and becoming CEO. Today, he's hospitalized. Coincidence or foul play? #
• FYI, there are 3 of us posting, so if it gets less coherent, we'll just twitter through to the other side. Check source to follow a thread #
• I hope you guys and gals brought your tissues and/or monogrammed hankerchiefs… #
• "Michael, I think you and I need to have a talk…about your…performance. And the future. How is 2pm in my office? Be seeing you." #
• "Sarah, I'm concerned that something may happen to me. What if I lose the job? How will we afford the mortgage? What about — #
• — the baby? I want the baby to have the opportunities we never did, the picket fence, the 1.5 siblings and loving happy parents." #
• "Mom, it's me Sare-bear. Yes, I shouldn't be sleeping with him, but Harry might be the *ONE*. When he touches me, it's like… #
• "…it's like I'm spaghetti & he's tomato sauce. Michael's hamburger helper & I'm a pan. Mom, I'm really bad at analogies, I have to go." #
• "Sarah, will you tell him the baby's mine? I can't believe this's happening,I thought I was YOUR ONE? Can we ever make US work after this?" #
• "Ma, she told me it wasn't mine. She has been hiding this from me, the baby daddy is actually… #
• "…her husband Michael. Yes I can't believe it either, she's been lying to me too. — " #
• — We have been having an affair for over two years, I thought I could trust her. I'm alone like the sun in the morning sky." #
• "Michael, great to see you. Mr. Stolapopalous is waiting to see you in his office. Do you want some coffee?" #
• "Tyler, I have a difficult choice to make. Do I keep it or not? I know how it goes against what I believe but…" #
• " …a career advancement opportunity like this doesn't come around very often. It's a huge bump in money, enough that the baby — " #
• "– and Sarah would be set. It's just I'd be traveling so much I'd be an absentee father with no family just like Dad. Plus ca change SIGH." #
• "I'm sorry about everything, the cheating, the lying. I just want…I want to start over Michael. I want to erase the past and act like — #
• " — this is the very first day of our relationship. I'll make you a big romantic dinner — " #
• "– How does spaghetti sound?" ~FIN~ #
• The definition of "FTW" –> http://imgur.com/mCUfG.jpg #
• Pleb:"Plz, make it stop.reading those tweets is making me more stupid,hard though that is to believe.like watching liveblogging paddleball" #
• A lot of #cephalopod chatter, #squid invasion could be sooner than my model thought…. #
• Response to Pleb: "That is the beauty of it. Twitteruesday — it will make you a full-on tard." #
• Horse race update: @LCDnews now has 150 followers, I think we are safe by market close but could be in jeopardy after hours. #
• Just worked out a great idea for Dangerous Fund II with Kaiser. This fund is even more dangerous than the first. #
• #CIT is named after someone who's not yet qualified to be a camp counselor & school w ugliest girls in the world. Its failure is no surprise #
• #zimbabwenomics is a top 10 source of Search engine traffic. "walruses are efficient" is top 20. #
• Looking through email,Juggles slams on cold e-mails have worked to dissuade ppl from e-mailing us. That or the publishing industry is dead. #
• Paleofish: "I have lost 30 IQ points thanks to Twitteruesday" #
• To the Paleofish: Go read the Sarah #Palin op-ed, you'll lose 30 more like I did http://bit.ly/13hyi9 and http://bit.ly/1925r3 #
• From @Anal_yst to JD: "How’s your love affair with Smith Barney going these days? Er MSSB or whatever its called?" #
• @Anal_yst my love affair has been ended for awhile. I stopped bothering, their fees were highway robbery and no value add #
• Smith Barney was blogged about here many moons ago http://bit.ly/jE4rM #
• Going to test TwitterBerry from the bathroom. BRB. But also sorta not BRB because Im gonna update you while Im away. #
• I successfully tweeted on the toilet! …uh that didn't come out right … so to speak #
• I wonder what % of tweets happen in bathrooms. 10% would be my guess #
• Incidentally, that is also the number of business deals closed in the bathroom. #
• I just completed a divestiture to a strategic buyer #
• Marketing cultist/CFA (yeah i dont get it) frm @normative comment thread just followed us, @Jakewk. Maybe he wants to sell us a Haque Bubble #
• seriously, this is still FTW http://imgur.com/mCUfG.jpg,dominating reversal on the comeback, a comecomeback. #
• Comecomeback probably shouldn't be said aloud. #
• Going to check facebook and eat a snack. Thinking about what a #palin presidency would look like. What was the seuss book, the Lorax? #
• We almost made it, will be interesting to see if our plugin will work right and post a digest post at 6pm as planned, I'd take the under #
• Brb hot pockets #

We’ll be honest. We have no idea what to do with Twitter. We can’t figure it out. The 140 character limit is restrictive, following “discussions” on it is completely incoherent, it doesn’t make money for the owners and never will. It’s unclear why it exists just as it’s unclear why people use it.

But we have found in our long lives that the best thing to do when you have no idea what to do with something is to just simply to do a lot of it. And that is precisely what we intend to do. We are going to Twitter the shit out of you today, Tuesday July 14th. We will be tweeting a minimum of 6 times per hour and a maximum of perf times infinity divided by unicorn.

You can either follow our tweets on this site in our sidebar or on Long or Short’s twitter feed itself. Where will you find the Tweets on our sidebar? Try and pick up on visual cues that might be pointing to their location.

Daniel Hamermesh, an econ professor and author, discussed the economics of an ugly boyfriend:

One of the came up with what is perhaps the most amusing negative externality example that I have heard in my teaching career.

Her roommate is beautiful, but her roommate’s boyfriend, so she says, is very, very ugly. No problem, except that the roommate has a poster-sized photograph of the boyfriend on the wall on her side of the room, a poster that my student has to view whenever she is on her own side of the room.

I ask my student why, if the guy is so ugly, her roommate goes out with him, and she answers, “He goes to Harvard; and he’s also a very nice guy.” This illustrates the importance of human capital in the matching market that is dating, and also that looks aren’t everything, either. We also supply personality and the ability to get ahead, both of which are valued by the labor market and thus by potential spouses. Indeed, careful research shows that, compared with average-looking women, good-looking women marry guys with an extra year of education. Today, an extra year of education is associated with about an extra twelve percent annual earnings.

We have all used this construct before, the “I have this cousin who loves the site Is She Filthy. Does that make him a perv or just a connoisseur?” or “This friend of a friend of mine hooked up with a girl with crabs. What treatment options should I recommend to this friend of friend fellow?”

Daniel Hamermesh, we are so on to you. You can pretend to the uninformed masses that this is just promotion for your book, just some anecdotal externality action, but we know the truth. You have hunkered down with some fine Texas coed(s?) and you want savvy fans to read between the lines. There is a young lady who is so into Dr. Hamermesh, so worked up, she has a poster-sized picture of your ugly mug draping her dorm room wall. You want us to know that this may be your best accomplishment. You even go on to brag about your extra-long education. Women always tell us that it’s not the size of your PhD, it’s the motions in your notions.*

It likely started as something casual. Maybe a little modeling on the side. Perhaps you decided to explore the pareto frontier together. Next thing you know she is hanging a poster of you on the wall and sexting you pictures which visually demonstrate how far her demand curve has shifted out.

Recommendation: The answer is Yes. With impunity. If you doubt me, click through and read the opening sentence that prefaces the quoted excerpt. “Naked self-promotion.” Naked self-promotion indeed you old dog, you!

*Also how much you make.

HT to Economists Do It With Models and to Long or Short’s Twitter

Brains are like hearts — they go where they are appreciated.
-Robert McNamara

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Often sites’ comments’ section devolve into a mutually destructive duel between two or more parties. Sides becomes entrenched, dig in and then continually try and crush the opposition with typed mustard gas. This kind of duel is fine and represents a dialogue that may lead to progress.

But another duel lurks deep in the bowels of comments section, the pernicious spelling bee or syntactical nitpicking duel. It it this duel against which I launch my campaign. I seek to destroy idiotic irrelevant comments like pointing out someone can’t spell, can’t do grammars or even stupidlier places a comma in the wrong place. Usually it’s just an indication that the commenter can’t type, or rather can’t type well, but even if it’s more, who really cares? In the days when you would spend hours drafting 300 words with ink and paper or painstakingly craft a single simple thought in cuneiform with a stick, spelling errors were a sin. But let’s move on now that we all compose thousands and thousands of words in rapid fashion daily. It’s asinine and unhelpful to slog that into any discussion, especially when the mistakes are understandable enough that nothing is lost in transmission which is the case 99% of the time.

I declare a Pax Spellimanicus et Typographicus.

In all debates, focus on your opponent’s idiotic substance not their idiotic form.

As a note for commenters, we won’t delete comments that we disagree with unless they are really vile (racist mainly) or worse, spam. But consider the above a thoughtful suggestion that can push communication to better levels as opposed to letting it be weighed down by the red-tape and bureaucracy that is inherent in grammatical, syntactical, spelling and typing nitpicking. Use this in your daily life and spread this to the uninitiated! Indoctrinate your friends and enemies alike! Reject the tyranny of perfect form! Embrace the freedom to make minor insubstantial mistakes!*

*Excepting the egregious error of spelling “patients” as “pacients” by HF in our comments. That is unforgivable, a sin that should be punished by internment in the harshest gulags. HF, pack your bags for Vorkuta.

Nicola Horlick, a “superwoman” by trade, founded and runs a closed-end investment fund called Bramdean Alternatives Limited (LSE: BRAL). She named the fund after a Hampshire town in which she has a house. Both the fact she did so and the house itself can be described as “quaint.” Here is a description of what Bramdean does:

Bramdean takes on the responsibility of investing with funds and fund managers on behalf of our clients. We research the worldwide investable universe of alternative fund managers and funds, searching for the most talented managers and highest quality investments available to our clients. Our goal is to find investments that will deliver superior returns and which are lowly-correlated to more traditional investments.

Our own experienced investment management team together with our network of industry specialists enable Bramdean to access managers and funds that are often closed to new investors.

Ah yes! Access! But what kind of access was Bramdean getting?

Bramdean Alternatives Ltd (BRAL.L) said almost 10 percent of its holdings were exposed to Madoff, the U.S. company at the heart of an alleged $50 billion fraud, sending shares in the UK asset manager crashing on Friday.

Bramdean, headed by well-known fund manager Nicola Horlick, said it had two holdings that maintain trading accounts with Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities that represented 9.5 percent of its net asset value at the end of October.

Separate WSJ piece:

Before news of the Madoff scandal broke in December, Ms. Horlick had publicly endorsed the money manager, calling him “very, very good at calling the U.S. equity market” in an interview with the Financial Times.

If you follow that second link, you can read how Horlick has done so well at getting access that she may well be out of her own firm by a mob of shareholders.

Maybe this played a part:

Apparently allocating assets into the biggest Ponzi scheme since the Securities Exchange Company is NOT a good call. Math indicates that it is in fact detrimental to investment performance. Maybe some due diligence should have been due done? Isn’t that why people pay fund of funds fees? Isn’t that the only reason? Oh wait, I forgot, they were paying for access. Silly me! Over the same time period as outlined above, the S&P 500 returned -30% to her closed-end alternative FoF’s performance was -45% — not what you’d expect from a “superwoman.”

Recommendation: Now this is not to say that all women shouldn’t run money. Only a fool would say something so blatantly sexist. But I will write it. Women shouldn’t run money. If you do find yourself in a situation wherein a woman is running money for you, you can expect them to charge you for “access” to a money sucking blackhole just as was done here.

It’s worth expanding this negative sentiment across all people who mostly trade on their name, whether it be Uma Thurman’s husband or whoever the bullshit artist du jour is. Sometimes, not often, but sometimes WHAT you know (and the desire TO know rather than wallowing in your own lazy ignorance) matters more than WHOM you know.

HT to WC Varones

California has looked down the fiscal precipice, and decided, in what will likely be its last act before it is broken off into the Ocean, that it will be to try and pay people with monopoly money. While former big 3, current Detroit 3 automakers have a certain distinctive bailoutable je ne sais quoi [Spanish Editor: CHE¿], top 10 global economies apparently lack that very same certain distinctive bailoutable quality. Alaska on the other hand, its keen efficiency likely stemming from its walrus population, is entirely bailoutable. So long as it is being bailed-out of rather than just bailed-out:

My decision was also fortified during this most recent trip to Kosovo and Landstuhl, to visit our wounded soldiers overseas, those who sacrifice themselves in war for our freedom and security… we can ALL learn from our selfless Troops… they’re bold, they don’t give up, they take a stand and know that life is short so they choose to not waste time.

…

If I have learned one thing: life is about choices!

And one chooses how to react to circumstances. You can choose to engage in things that tear down, or build up. I choose to work very hard on a path for fruitfulness and productivity. I choose not to tear down and waste precious time; but to build up this state and our country, and her industrious, generous, patriotic, free people!

…

So I choose, for my State and my family, more “freedom” to progress, all the way around… so that Alaska may progress… I will not seek re-election as Governor.

My mother always told me “When the going gets tough, you gotta get the fuck out…to progress” so it’s good to know that at least one elected official agrees with Ma D. Thank you Sarah Palin! She also told me if you want to build something up, you have to set it free by quitting your job with it. Mom was the best. Until she left us for lucrative book offers, TV positions and our continental Uncle Sam.

Recommendation: After Alaska’s bail-out, I can only imagine that Alaska will be on a roll. But will this Alaskan roll be superior to the California Roll? Because of the avocado overlap, the key angle for analysis will be the freshness of the salmon that is used in the Alaskan roll. For now we think the Alaskan roll looks promising but our analysis is subject to change based on the day of the week, the ability to source fresh salmon and the reputation of the sushi-chef.

Defined in psychological terms, a fanatic is a man who consciously overcompensates a secret doubt.
-Aldous Huxley

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Marijuana Firms are pushing Californian municipalities to tax them.

This week, Oakland began sending out ballots in a special mail-only election on four revenue-generating ballot measures, including Measure F, a tax on medical marijuana.

…

The clubs see the ballot measure as a way to help the broader cause of medical marijuana.

“Criminals don’t pay taxes,” said James Anthony, an attorney for Harborside Health Center, one of the dispensaries. “Law-abiding citizens do. We are nothing if not law-abiding citizens.”

The strategy at work is what is known as “Crack Strategy.” Crack Strategy can be broken down into four phases.

1. First one’s free: Give your customer product for free.
2. Get’em hooked: Wait for your customers return. If they are not suitably addicted, repeat Phase 1.
3. Kill your competition: Your profits are surging, but competition remains and is a constant threat. You must crush them.
4. Buy an Island: A place where you can retire to. Phase 4 is almost never reached before death.

Recommendation: California medical marijuana dispensaries are currently in Phase 1 of their Crack Strategy as they attempt to get the Government hooked on their tax money. As we know the Government has a very addictive personality. If the weed firms succeed in attaining addiction to the extent we expect, Phase 3 will occure and a rash of related violence will commence as larger firms seek to crush their competition. This would lead to a surge in demand for hemp garrotes, brass hackey sacks and kabongs (explosive bongs). It is here where you can build your position ahead of the inevitable gap up in prices. Phase 4 is a pipe dream so it shouldn’t be used in any of your modeling.

Everything is black and white. A sparse room lined with white tiles. Decrepit but also clean in a clinical way. Women are being herded into the room from a narrow entryway.

Close up on a woman’s famished face. Her eyes are tired, her cheeks gaunt. But she is strikingly beautiful. Her eyes are bright blue. A startling KABRUPT sound as the pipes are carrying something into the room. Water starts showering on her from above, her hair now pulled back in a tilt.

Voice comes over a tinny loudspeaker haltingly:

“Women! Do not be afraid! Let the Infusium 23 enter your hair!”

Floating bottles of Infusium 23 descend down dripping a viscous shampoo into our heroine’s hair. As the Infusium 23 hits her hair, it ceases being black and white and transforms into full color. She is seen shaking her hair in slow motion as its lavishness becomes apparent. Her whole face looks energized and she flashes a large knowing smile.

Narration provided by Miley Cyrus:

“Don’t let your hair be put to a dry death. Liberate your hair with Infusium 23’s new (moistur)ologie line of shampoos and conditioners. Infusium 23’s (moistur)ologie line corrects, restores, and structurizes your hair. It infuses hair with 23 essential pro-vitamin and treatment ingredients, and helps restore moisture for soft, silky feel. Infusium 23 — commit genocide against dry hair.”

Close up on a bottle that is coming towards the screen and growing in size.

End scene

Rejected advertising for Infusium 23.

Early morning bid/asks

Sentencing for Bernie Madoff: 57-61 years
Total number of Madoffs sentenced to jailtime by 2011: 1-3
“Life”* remaining for Madoff: 7-9 years
“Life”* remaining for Walter Noel: 3-4 years
Attempts on the life of a Noel male in the next five years: 2-3

*Life here refers to whether someone has not been deemed “legally dead.” As we know from the Kenneth Lay situation, if you time it correctly you can be legally dead but also still living. A great way to free yourself from jail time.

Sometimes in life you have to realize a poor investment and cut your losses. Write that down.
-Van Wilder Sr.

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

Infectious Greed posted about a blog which is harvesting 1930’s WSJ news pieces and headlines. The natural inclination from reading these frequently spot-on pieces is as a commentary on how history either repeats or rhymes. This natural inclination, just like the natural inclination to be overwhelmingly attracted to Gadget from Rescue Rangers, is wrong. History doesn’t repeat or rhyme, IT RAPS. And this is how it raps.

Jay-Z rapped 99 Problems to this historical current

The year is ’09 and your world is gone
You’ve just realized you’re alone, broke an’ one dumb pawn.
The financial forces y’all trusted are total shit,
That Ben behind the Fed curtain is not legit.
I ain’t trying to see no returns erased with Me.
We’ll head now to your situation, cut to the chase quickly.
Broker calls, “Son, do you know why your statements say zero”
‘Cause I’m young and I’m dumb and from Toledo?
Do I look like a mind reader sir, I don’t know.
Are you jerkin’ me off or should I guess some mo’
“Well you was overweight emerging markets like a schmoe.
Now you’re broke, and can’t afford your new McHouse or car.
Are you hidin’ any cash in your mattress, I know a lot of you are”
‘I ain’t done nothin’ wrong, it is someone else’s bullshit.’
“Well do you mind if I look at your finances a little bit.”
‘Well my car is leased and my house is underwater,
And I know my rights so the Govt gonna bail me out o’ there.’
“Aren’t you dumb like Nails, you some type of retard or something?”
Or a real mouth-breather or somethin’?”
Nah, I ain’t no rere, I passed my GED,
Smart enough to work for Ohio’s DMV.
“We’ll see how smart you are when the squid lord comes”
You got eleven trillion problems and squid is THE one.