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longorshort - @munilass Have you seen Event Horizon? That 1 part where they find old ship's video? Sex in the City The Movie was pretty terrifying, too. 46 days ago
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More Notes from China: Lost in Collusion

Published on October 22, 2009 by in Research

Held a meeting with the CFO of one of the largest construction equipment manufacturers in China. Their main business is wheel loaders.

Me: You and your competitors have very high margins, some are even higher than Catepillar (NYSE: CAT) which is the global leader. Is there any risk that as you all add capacity those margins decline?

Chinese CFO (through tanslator): Uh so he says that there is no risk of a pricing war.

Me: Ok can you tell me why that is?

Chinese CFO: Uh so he says China has 5 main wheel loader companies. And all are good companies and will not start a price war. Also he says the 5 CEOs of the companies meet every month for a dinner and they all agree not to make a price war against each other.

Me (to the translator): Did he really say that?

Translator: Yes.

Me: OK, moving right along.

 
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Let’s Talk About Health, baby

Let’s talk about all the good things and the bad things that may be. Recently, everytime I’m at Blockbuster video (NYSE: BBI) or waiting in line for a payphone or getting my chest hair lasered (ask your depillitator for “the Kaiser”, your lady will be grateful) I’ve been getting dragged into the healthcare debate. Usually I just pretend I’m on Total Request Live:

Carson! I think Obamacare {QUICK DEEP BREATH} by Barrack Obama {QUICK DEEP BREATH}) should be the number 1 video because Barrack is soooooo hotttt and everyone should have should have rad healthcare and it should cost way less and Obama rocks my world!!!! WOOOOO!!!!!

If however you actually want to waste your time arguing about healthcare we thought we’d take a few things we commonly hear and give you some IN YOUR FACE FACTS to drop on your friends and make them hate you more than if you just make outrageous claims that you can’t back-up. Mostly what’s below is true, mostly, and if that standard is good enough for science and math, it’s good enough for us.

People say: For-profit health insurance companies are the devil and the reason we spend so much more on healthcare than other countries (Note: this is a recurring theme of the hot selling book “Healing of Amercia” by T.R. Reid, now available at your local grocery store).

IN YOUR FACE FACT: Healthcare insurance companies make between 5 and 10% profit margins (p.5). So even if you usurped all these profits (assuming you could run the companies just as efficiently) the most you could save is 5-10% of the cost. And by the way many states already have not-for-profit Blue Cross Blue Shield plans. If not making profits made insurance companies give you the same care at lower costs then these BCBS plans would be blowing up like a totally sweet Jenna Haze automatic blow-up doll. But they’re not, they’re slowly deflating like blow-up dolls tend to when you make them wear a spiked choker against their will. Mostly.

 
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Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing 10-18-2009

Published on October 18, 2009 by in Quotes

In a truly free market, the Invisble Hand has to give the Dollar a reach-around.
-Jon Stewart

Past Quotes Entirely Relevant to Investing

 
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This Week in Tweets for 2009-10-17

Published on October 17, 2009 by in Twitter
  • @jodiecongirl Because the political incentive system is broken and because only assclowns with law degrees go into politics in reply to jodiecongirl #
  • The Audacity of Extortion http://bit.ly/47UQtl #
  • Our policy makers have bailed out poorly run financials by creating massive federal deficits, and think they've solved the problem… #
  • ..as one who runs over a weed with a lawnmower. The roots have simply grown deeper, because the seeds are still there. http://bit.ly/16s0ma #
  • "The…absolute number of U.S. residents who die from…cancer each year is now falling, year-on-year" — is this true? anyone? #
  • From the comments on this McArdle post, http://bit.ly/2YGGV3 #
  • @Anal_yst We know guy who specializes in knowing guy who deals in color markets. Been trying to sell us mezz tranche of a Teal CDO for mnths in reply to Anal_yst #
  • http://imgur.com/Ci4e5.png We've all been there. #
  • One day, God summoned forth the best musicians from Earth to present their craft for Him. Earth produced Dream Theater and U2. #
  • One day, God summoned forth the best musicians from Earth to present their craft for Him. Earth produced Dream Theater and U2. -bit.ly/4JMXg #
  • First, U2 played. God was gently amused. He thought Bono had bitching shades. Angels swayed to the upbeat pitter-patter of Bono’s songs. #
  • Second, Dream Theater plays. Halfway through Dream Theater's first song, God smashes Bono's balls into his mouth until he vomits. #
  • New young automaton wife + billions + dbag + dow 10,000 = dead Wasserstein $LAZ #
  • Not a commandment, but an important investing rule nonetheless: http://bit.ly/r1mh #
  • @crampell That post didn't answer the proposed question of how much it costs at Princeton vs TCNJ! False twitvertising. in reply to crampell #
  • @kyle_s Wasserstein not TOTALLY dead, only mostly dead, but figured the best way to make money was to die. He's making a market call. in reply to kyle_s #
 
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Sell Out Saturday: Why We Fight

This is a sponsored post

In the mini-series Band of Brothers, the 101st Airborne’s Easy Company encounters concentration camps and the horrors contained within. After that point, the Nazis were no longer just conquerors who these Americans thought should be pushed back into the bowels of Bavaria. The Nazis were the pure evil and Easy company knew that it was their moral imperative to defeat Hitler’s men, lest the forces of darkness swallow the Earth whole. The title of this episode was “Why We Fight.”

To Gary Barzell, business loans are Nazis. If you need financing, the idea that you would be forced into making secured loans impugns his sense of right and wrong. That is why he will offer you up to $250,000 in unsecured business loans. No questions asked.

How do we know this? Let’s just say that Long or Short Capital is richer by approximately $250,000 at each of our possible levels: parent, opco, several subs and a series of shell entities we created solely to be able to exploit Gary’s generosity.

The best part is that because these loans are unsecured, there is no collateral he can seize from you when things go awry or you fly to Tahiti.

Now you might be saying, isn’t this the kind of reckless no doc no strings financing extended to uncreditworthy entities (like Long or Short, for example) that built the bubble that got us into the current economic mess? The answer is YES. But it’s also this kind of reckless no doc no strings financing extended to unsavory uncreditworthy entities (like Long or Short, for example) that let us know our long economic nightmare is over, that the target for the DOW should be reset to 36,000 from our previous target of 8, and that we will be mini-balling again in no time.

Returning back to Easy company, they realized in “Why We Fight” why they fought. To defeat evil. Like those brave American soldiers, Long or Short has learned Why We Write. We write to get paid and to defeat evil. And to kill Nazis.

Thanks you and God Bless.

 
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Hurricane Hugo loves Margarita

Reader The Paleofish sent in a link to Hugo Chavez in action, sticking it to uppity hotels.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has said he seized the landmark Hilton hotel on Margarita Island because its owners dared to impose conditions on its use by his government to host a summit there last month.

“To hold the conference we had to ask for permission… and the owners tried to impose conditions on the revolutionary government. No way,” said Chavez.

“So I said, ‘Let’s expropriate it.’ And now it’s been expropriate

The hotel was a Hilton, the second Hilton to be seized by Hugo Chavez. How does this affect your portfolio? Quoting myself, something I love to do, this was our first piece on Piratery:

But setting up a lair in a place like Isla Margarita, located off the northern coast of Venenzuela, would be an environment with relatively low piratery penetration but proximity to major cruiseline and OPEC oil routes. An added bonus, Isla Margarita is where non-pirate berserker Lope de Aguirre reached his crescendo.

Revisiting this recommendation, we would downgrade Isla Margarita to “Not a good place to set up a pirate lair” due to the Venezuelan government’s growing presence in the quasi-legal seizure business.

 
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Dumb Moments in Dumb Advertising with Dumb Garmin

Have you heard the news? Garmin’s (NASDAQ: GRMN) new nuvifone is new?

Recommendation: Short Garmin. It may be my irrational fear of oomlats, my hate of redundancy in advertising or my rational fear of combo devices, but any company that is working all three of these angles, isn’t a company worth a damn. If they had changed the name to “noovifone” they may have had a hit.

 
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Sailing Improvements

I’ve spent a lot of time recently on a boat. Later on, I was on a dolphin doing flips and shit, but mostly I’ve been on a boat. And all I could think as I idly sailed about was:

“People call this a sport? Raping mother nature’s winds for your own pleasure? Hundreds of feet from your competitors, who like you, are wearing dock shoes, and Nantucket reds and have the complexion of snow. Where is the sport in that? And what is that Somali looking man doing with that RPG?”

Sailing needs something. It needs conflict. It needs physicality. It needs to be more impactful. It needs to feature boarding and grappling hooks.

When Black Beard did the first America’s Cup race back in 17whateverthehell, they didn’t race each other in boats that cost tens of millions dollars, helmed and manned by sons of privilege. They fought each other to death in pilfered pinnaces, helmed and manned solely by maroons and sons of bitches. Race? The only race was to see how long you could survive, and how much whoring and pillaging you’d take down before death.

So obviously things are different. And that’s why sailing needs a sea change, three of them actually.

First things first, the aforementioned grappling and boarding is allowed in all sailing races. Let’s see how many Ted Turners are “courageous” when they face the chance of being gutted from groin to gill by an Australian ex-con named Roggie. As a bonus, this return to its classical roots would make sailing the world’s most popular spectator sport.

Second. All yacht clubs ban popped collars, people with names like Preston, and people rich enough to own a boat. Yacht club membership will remain an exclusive status, but the criteria for admittance will change. Instead of a blue blood test, there will be a red blood test. You have to have killed a man on the sea, justly, to become a full member. Junior membership will be bestowed upon anyone who has won a knife fight or bedded a mermaid.*

Third. Grappling and boarding is also legal at any point on the sea. If you are a “boater” and you love being on the ocean, then you better be able to handle your business with a cutlass. Any boat seized after being boarded would then be lawful property of the seizers, the male crew would be subject to death or impressment, the female crew would be subject to slavery.

*Manatees do not count, regardless of how hot they look. I’ve heard all the hot manatee claims before, and that crap won’t fly with me.

 
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Notes from China

Published on October 12, 2009 by in Research

Meeting rescheduled for 90min later on 10min notice.

IR contact: “Our leader needs to have a nap.”
MrJuggles: “Ummm…”
IR contact: “He usually naps until 3pm but since you have traveled so far he will meet you at 2pm.”
MrJuggles: “Thank you.”

 
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This Week in Tweets for 2009-10-10

Published on October 10, 2009 by in Twitter
  • Are you gloomy this Friday? Well don't drink. Instead watch this: http://bit.ly/17MiTM Take time for your pleasure. And laugh with love. #
  • Actually, drink too, it can't hurt. #
 
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Look Out Moon, Don’t Mess Around With God’s America

America will blow up the moon, we have the technology, the time is now, science can wait no longer, children are our future, America can, should, must, and WILL blow up the moon…And we’ll be doing it during a full moon so we make sure we get it all.

Quote from Mr. Show in 1996

I don’t mean to be that monkey, but why are we blowing up the moon? Has it come to this? I understand that this is a search for water but at $79 million, aren’t their cheaper local sources? Isn’t this the kind of thing that leads to more global warming? E.g. sourcing water from the moon and then shipping it here burns more fossil fuels than even bottled water, according to my model at least.

Recommendation: Short moon real estate. While it’s likely to benefit from increased scarcity, it’s also likely to be negatively impacted by being exploded.

 
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LoS Update

Published on October 8, 2009 by in Research

A number of our investors have contacted us, asking us questions like:

  • are you still alive?
  • where are our dividends?
  • have you stopped posting due to being brutally murdered?

The answer to all these questions is yes, yes and yes.

Or it’s that the stimulus is working but we have to respect our arrangement with the Blog Czar. If you missed the Abstract Investment Idea Investment and Recovery Act of 2009 (you did), you also missed that President Obama appointed a Blog Czar to oversee the compensation levels for authors of arcane and imaginary investment ideas. It’s only fair that compensation is regulated for these blogs given the staggering amounts of taxpayer money they have received from the federal government. Obviously, we at Long or Short have received far more than our share of the pseudo-real investment blog bailout. Again, it’s only fair.

We were also able to negotiate an agreement whereby we submit our commentary for regulation rather than our compensation. You see, if our compensation is regulated, we will no longer have incentive to research new, cutting edge fabrications for publication*. However, if our commentary is regulated, but we are still well-compensated, we will continue to be productive as ever, dreaming up incredible and illusory investment opportunities which we can then publish to the public. Unless, of course, the Blog Czar regulates our speech. Which he normally does, because if he didn’t, what would he really have to do? It’s only fair.

So, in summary, we are alive. We are still as inventive and imaginative and profitable as ever (moreso!). And we are excited to bring you all the commentary that isn’t regulated by the Czar (probably not much, to be honest) and to reap massive profits on that which is censored.

As you can see, it’s all quite fair.

* We will also be unable to contribute to the ruling party at the levels we would like to (if we are overly compensated).

 
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Translating Corporate Speak: Wynn [Unforeseen Upside Edition #3]

More magic from Steve Wynn — slightly delayed due to our summer escapades — on his 2Q09 conference call.

The Administration is more of a problem than they are of a help usually, if you read the headlines. Everyone is frightened to death about runaway inflation if these deficits are allowed to take place. The good news is the Senate seems to be slowing it down.
But we can’t see where it’s good for business to have that debt as a percentage of GDP go from 30% to 60% or 70%. That sort of makes us an emerging country. But maybe wiser heads will prevail and some of the things that are on the table, these amazing misunderstandings of how the system works, will get slowed down in Washington.
Right now, we are more afraid of Washington that we are the economy. We’ve got people on our backs saying don’t go to Las Vegas, which is preposterous. And people are beginning to ignore this kind of bombastic rhetoric from the White House and from the Administration, and that is encouraging.

Translation: Politicians suck and are doing their best to destroy American business.

My own feeling is the government of Macau will protect and so will the central government of Beijing and the regional government in Juhai at Guangdong province, at Guangzhou. The government will do a very enlightened and thoughtful job of protecting the interest of the citizens and the business enterprises that support the health of those businesses.
In America, we have a government that has decided that anybody that creates jobs must be bad, that the job creators should have a target painted on their back. What a remarkable misunderstanding of how the United States of America works. I tell you that that is not the case in Macau, and it’s not the case in the People’s Republic of China. And maybe we could all learn a lesson by watching what happens there.

Translation: I currently prefer to do business in a People’s Republic than the USA.

I think that the Encore tower when it debuts in a few months is going to give people a really clear insight as to what we will do next, and the level at which we will be operating in China. It is a great place to do business — really wonderful. None of the anxiety that we have at the present time in America.
I have been self insuring my employees, up to 40,000 of them, for 40 years. And everything I am reading about Obamacare is a train wreck. And I say that as an insurer — a train wreck.

Translation: No, seriously, I prefer the communist country.

We put Beyonce in here on the toughest weekend other than December 19th of the year. We did it on purpose. This is — conventions and stuff like that start the first part of August. We picked a real trough in the traditional revenue seasons. And so she is a special event as opposed to an ongoing entertainment event. And a remarkable, and as I said, lovely, lovely lady.

I should tell you that we own the life rights to the Bee Gees. And we’re working on a show about that. Garth Brooks was here as a friend. He didn’t charge. That was just a buddy singing. As a matter of fact, Garth is going to be here tonight to watch Beyonce with his wife, with Trisha Yearwood, and his three daughters — going to sit with me.
And I think that Garth Brooks is a stay-at-home dad, and take his kids to school every morning — he really does actually take his children to school every single morning — an extraordinary fellow, really extraordinary.

Translation: Please allow me the luxury of dropping a few names to remind you that I am richer and having a more interesting life than you.

 
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This Week in Tweets for 2009-09-26

 
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